SPY(ETF) Price Forecaster
Time-series forecasting project to predict next-day SPY adjusted close with deep learning and baseline comparison.
Workflow
- Fetched SPY market data and engineered MA10/30/90, log returns, volatility, and RSI14 features.
- Built sequence windows (90, 30, and 10 days) so each sample gives the model recent price/indicator history.
- Each LSTM learns temporal patterns by carrying memory from earlier timesteps and outputs a next-day price forecast.
- Compared all models using MSE, RMSE, and MAE, then benchmarked them against a MA10 baseline.
- Generated next-day predictions and plotted model outputs against actual prices.
- In simple terms: the model looks at recent market behavior, learns recurring patterns, and makes an informed guess for tomorrow's price.
Forecast Charts
Script was run on 28/2/2026.
Evaluation Results
| Model | MSE | RMSE | MAE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90-day LSTM | 159.88 | 12.64 | 8.96 |
| 30-day LSTM | 173.16 | 13.16 | 9.92 |
| 10-day LSTM | 142.16 | 11.92 | 8.53 |
| Baseline MA10 | 95.92 | 9.79 | 7.55 |
Next-Day Predictions [output calculated on 28/2/2026]
- 90-day LSTM588.79
- 30-day LSTM573.98
- 10-day LSTM585.32
- Baseline MA10583.55